Kaiser Health News has summarized some new findings from the Mercer consulting group that are quite compelling. We think they're so significant they should each be absorbed separately. The first impressive finding, from a study of 3,000 firms: "The excise tax ... could hit up to 19 percent of medical packages offered by employers in 2013, the first year it goes into effect." (Emphasis mine)
19 percent! As in one health plan in five - you know, that 19 percent. We don't have enough data to guess what percentage of people with employer health insurance would be affected, but we're predicting it will be more than 19 percent. Why? Because larger employers tend to offer more generous health coverage than smaller employers, and union health plans also tend to have larger memberships. So if one in every five plans will be affected, larger plans will be disproportionately taxed - with the effects of that tax being passed on to more than one American in five with employer-based insurance.
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So the so-called "Cadillac tax" - sold as a tax on extravagant executive plans - is likely to affect one-fifth or even more of the American workforce and their families. That's a stunning number - and it's based on a large sampling of health plans. This tax is looking less like a Cadillac and more like a family station wagon every day.
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