Wednesday, June 24, 2009

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option

As I lamented yesterday, health care is one of those areas where both popular opinionand sound public policy seem to take a backseat to protecting those stakeholders who benefit from the status quo. But can we actually see -- statistically -- the impact of lobbying by the insurance industry on the prospects for health care reform? I believe that the answer is yes.



Some 37 senators are listed by Howard Dean's website as supporting the public option so far: 36 Democrats plus Olympia Snowe. To Dean's list I add Arlen Specter as a 'yes' vote, based on a recent public statement.
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We can also estimate which particular senators are most likely to have been influenced by lobbying money. The following chart presents the model's estimates of the net decrease in a senator's probability of supporting the public option based on the quantity of insurance PAC money that he has received:

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